Thursday 1 December 2016

The Richmond by-election: Is the political tide beginning to turn against Brexit?


A short time ago it became clear that the white knuckle ride towards "Trainwreck Brexit" experienced what one might call "a little difficulty".

Sarah Olney, the Liberal Democrat candidate, defeated the former Conservative MP, Zac Goldsmith, in the Richmond by-election:

Lib Dems oust Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election

Both Ms. Olney and Mr. Goldsmith were against Heathrow expansion.

The key difference between the two leading candidates was that Ms. Olney was critical of Brexit and Mr.Goldsmith was in favour of it.

No doubt the result will receive enormous attention as the nation wakes up today.

It will be impossible for Theresa May totally to ignore the result.

However, those of us who oppose the Brexit Madness must be realistic too.

Richmond, so it seems, is one of the most highly educated constituencies in the country.

It voted strongly in favour of Remain in the Referendum of 23rd June.

So we can't blithely assume that other constituencies will, on reflection about the disastrous consequences of "Trainwreck Brexit", make a similar anti-Brexit decision.

Yet, there is cause for encouragement.

If, as happened in Richmond, a Conservative majority of  23,015 at the 2015 General Election has been overturned it must, I think, give pause for thought to Theresa May and at least some Conservative MPs.

For at least some Conservative MPs the calculation will be of self-interest.

The question for them will be, "Will supporting Brexit or opposing Brexit give me the best chance of being re-elected in 2020?"

The Richmond by-election is certainly a useful and encouraging ripple in the political waters surrounding the  proposed Brexit.

Will it be the beginning of the political tide turning against Brexit?

It's too early to tell.


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